Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Nov 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1030 (N23W105) rotated off the visible disk. No flares were
observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low to low for the next 3 days (14-16 November) due to old
Region 1029 rotating back on the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next two days (14-15
November). Day three (16 November) is expected to be mostly quiet
with a slight chance of an unsettled period due to a weak coronal
hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 074
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 074/075/075
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01