Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as a coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain unsettled to occasionally active, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes. Activity begins to decrease to unsettled to quiet levels on day 3 (16 Nov) as the coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Nov 070
• Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/010-015/015-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/35/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/35/25
• Minor storm 25/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05