Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Nov 2005
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S06E66) produced an M2.5 flare at 13/1451 UTC, and several C-class events in the last 24 hours. This group is the only spotted region on the solar disk and is still to close to the limb for a detailed analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 822 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The solar wind averaged around 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating between +1 to -4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Nov 088
- Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 090/095/100
- 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 007/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 008/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/008-008/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 05/10/10
- Minor storm 01/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
