Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Nov 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Nov 13 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to two M-class flares, both from newly assigned Region 501
(N05E65), which is the return of old Region 484. The first was an
impulsive M1.6 at 0501 UTC. The second was a long duration M1.4 with
maximum at 0929 UTC. The M1.4 was associated with a fast CME (about
1100 km/s) that appeared to erupt off east limb. Limited
observations hindered analysis of the region, but it appears to have
sunspot area of at least 340 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days, with Region 501 the most likely
source for activity. There is a slight chance for major flare
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels,
with a period of major storm levels at high latitudes. Solar wind
signatures continue to show high speed, low density, high
temperature, with fairly regular oscillations of the z-component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), all of which strongly
suggest the enhanced geomagnetic activity is being driven by a
high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods for
14-15 November as the current disturbance persists. There should be
a slight decline to mostly active on 16 November.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
- Class M 60/60/60
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Nov 102
- Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 105/110/115
- 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 020/026
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 025/040
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 30/30/25
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 30/30/25
- Major-severe storm 25/25/20