Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 13, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 13 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to two M-class flares, both from newly assigned Region 501
(N05E65), which is the return of old Region 484. The first was an
impulsive M1.6 at 0501 UTC. The second was a long duration M1.4 with
maximum at 0929 UTC. The M1.4 was associated with a fast CME (about
1100 km/s) that appeared to erupt off east limb. Limited
observations hindered analysis of the region, but it appears to have
sunspot area of at least 340 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days, with Region 501 the most likely
source for activity. There is a slight chance for major flare

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels,
with a period of major storm levels at high latitudes. Solar wind
signatures continue to show high speed, low density, high
temperature, with fairly regular oscillations of the z-component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), all of which strongly
suggest the enhanced geomagnetic activity is being driven by a
high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods for
14-15 November as the current disturbance persists. There should be
a slight decline to mostly active on 16 November.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

  • Class M 60/60/60
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 13 Nov 102
  • Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 105/110/115
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 020/026
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 025/040
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 025/030-025/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 30/30/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 30/30/25
  • Major-severe storm 25/25/20

SpaceRef staff editor.