Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low during the past 24
hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for days one through three (14-16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (14 May). Days two and
three (15-16 May) are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a
chance for isolated active periods. The increase in activity is
forecast due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming
geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 092
Predicted 14 May-16 May 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 13 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/008-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/15
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/30/10
Minor storm 01/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01