Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 May 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 May 13 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
New Region 1017 (N18E27) was numbered today. This region is
classified as a Bxo beta spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (14 – 16
May).

III. Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 074
Predicted 14 May-16 May 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 13 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/005-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01