Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 May 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The active region around the east limb has continued to produce low-level flares during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a chance for B-class flares and a slight chance for an isolated C-class event from the approaching new region behind the east limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately at quiet conditions for the next three day period (14-16 May).

III. Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 May 068
• Predicted 14 May-16 May 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 13 May 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01