Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 880 (S08W57) and 883 (S02W27) both decayed slightly.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed is still slightly elevated at approximately 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (14 – 16 May).

III. Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 May 074
• Predicted 14 May-16 May 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 13 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 010/016
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/008-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01