Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 13, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 13 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 609 (S03E24) produced
three C-class flares including a C7/Sf at 13/1330Z. This region
underwent rapid growth in the past 36 hours and now exhibits a
moderately complex beta-gamma configuration. CME activity was
observed off the east limb. New Regions 612 (N10E07) and 613
(S08E83) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Region 609 will likely produce C-class activity and
may soon possess potential for M-class events.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active to minor storm period between 13/0600 – 0900Z. Occasional
periods of sustained southward IMF Bz account for the most disturbed

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 13 May 101
  • Predicted 14 May-16 May 105/110/115
  • 90 Day Mean 13 May 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 009/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 012/014
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 010/012-010/015-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/35/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.