Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1166 (N10W65) and 1169
(N20W34) have both produced C-class events. The daily consensus has
Region 1166 as decreased in both white light areal coverage and
sunspot count with a Ekc type spot group and a beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 1169 has maintained its area and spot count
and is a simple beta magnetic classification with a Cro type spot
group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The ACE spacecraft
observed solar wind speeds during the past 24 hours averaging around
550 km/s with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz fluctuating
between -4/+5 nT. Observations suggest that the earth is still
under the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
levels for day one (14 March). Days two and three (15-16 March) are
expected to be predominately quiet as the effects from the coronal
hole high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 40/20/20
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 113
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/05/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01