Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately unsettled to active levels. An isolated minor storm period was observed at 13/0300Z. This activity was in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocity at ACE increased to 550 km/s. Interplanetary Bz fluctuated between +15 to -11 nt.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominately unsettled on day one (14 March). Predominately quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (15 – 16 March).

III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Mar 068
• Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 006/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 015/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 010/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/10/05
• Minor storm 10/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/15/10
• Minor storm 20/05/01
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01