Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Mar 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An emerging flux region was observed at N10E03.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the continued influence of a high speed stream. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE satellite ranged from 685 km/s near 2300Z to 569 km/s near 1700Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (14 March), quiet on day 2 (15 March) in response to a slackening solar wind. A return to unsettled levels is anticipated on day 3 (16 March) with the possibility of active periods at high latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Mar 070
• Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 008/008-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

• A. Middle Latitudes
• Active 25/10/30
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/10/40
• Minor storm 10/05/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/05