Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods on 14-15 March due to a recurring coronal hole. Quiet conditions are expected on 16 March.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Mar 073
• Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 073/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 003/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 002/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 008/015-005/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/20/15
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01