Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Mar 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 13 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Regions 741 (N12W57) and
742 (S05W12) both produced minor C-class flares during the period.
Region 742 continues to grow and was observed at 340 millionths in
white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions
are possible 14-15 March from the minor effects of a small
geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Mar 114
- Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 115/115/110
- 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 003/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/25
- Minor storm 25/25/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
