Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Mar 2003
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 311 (S12W08)
produced a C1.3/Sf flare at 13/0213 UTC with multiple eruptive
centers. Region 311 has grown slightly over the past twenty-four
hours, most notable was an increase in plage area with numerous
patches forming east of the main spots. New Region 313 (N32E00),
exhibited numerous plage fluctuations. The largest and most complex
spot group on the disk was Region 306 (N07W05). This region has
developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 306 and 311 have the potential for C-class
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Two separate
periods of isolated active conditions were observed due to Bz
fluctuations near -10 nT. Solar wind velocity remained relatively
steady between 450 – 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. High speed stream effects are expected early in the
period as an equatorial coronal hole rotates into a geo-effective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Mar 134
- Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 130/125/120
- 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/009
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 017/017
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 015/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/30
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/35
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
