Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S17E14)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare at 13/1317Z associated with a
260 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep. This region showed
growth in the leading spots and developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 13/1412Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between
700 and 800 km/s. Old Region 1507 was split into two regions as it
showed two distinct bipolar areas and now consists of Region 1507
(S25W13) and Region 1508 (S28W06).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 14-15 June. An increase to unsettled levels
is expected mid-day on day 3 (16 June) due to a possible glancing
blow from today’s CME.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 143
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 006/005-006/005-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/25