Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 x-ray event was
observed at 13/0055Z from an area of enhanced brightening on the
east limb near N20. Region 1234 (S16E07) remained the only spotted
region on the disk. The region produced a few B-class events, the
largest a B9 x-ray event at 13/0616Z. Region 1234 indicated little
change over the past 24 hours and remained a simple B-type, bi-polar
group. A partial halo CME was observed lifting off the SE limb,
first observed in C2 SOHO LASCO imagery at 13/0424Z, and later in C3
imagery at 13/0454Z. The plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at near
600 km/s. The CME appeared to originate from a bright area of plage
centered near old Region 1223 (S17, L=125), first viewed in STEREO-B
EUVI imagery at 13/0355Z as an area of northward surging.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (14 – 16 June) with a chance for an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar
wind data indicated the continued presence of a coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) with wind speeds averaging about 450 km/s. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained
enhanced with a maximum flux reading of 4.8 pfu at 13/1010Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (14 June)
with a chance for active levels due to continued CH HSS effects.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on days two and
three (15 – 16 June) as the CH HSS subsides. The greater than 10 MeV
protons are expected to remain enhanced through 14 June, returning
to background levels by 15 June.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 087
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 089/091/093
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01