Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 June 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 1079 (S23W95) produced an M1.0/SF flare at 0539Z which was
associated with a Type II radio sweep. Regions 1079 and 1080
(S24W77) decayed to plage towards the end of the period. Region
1081 (N24W76) produced several C-class flares during the past 24
hours and maintains a beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for days 1 and 2 (14-15 June). Activity is expected to be very low
for day 3 (16 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet on days 1 and 2 (14-15 June). Conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods on day 3 (16 June) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream moving into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 076
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 076/074/072
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/40
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01