Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jun 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 14 0038 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 960 (S05W85) produced A B4 flare at 13/1347Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. An apparent solar sector boundary crossing occurred at 13/1800Z. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 310 km/s to 420 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 14-15 June, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes, due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 June.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Jun 071
- Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 003/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 004/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/20
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/25
- Minor storm 20/20/15
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01
