Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 14, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 14 0030 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 775 (N10W46) and
776 (S06W34) are both in decay. LASCO imagery showed a CME at
13/1600 UTC. The ejecta was directed to the north west and is not
likely to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm conditions.
Periods of major storming levels were observed at 12/2100 – 2400 UTC
and again at 13/0300 – 0600 UTC. Heightened activity was due to a
prolonged southward Bz in response to CME activity from 08 June. By
the end of the period conditions had quieted down to unsettled
levels and the Bz component of the Magnetic field did not vary
beyond +/- 5 Nt. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 14 June. The arrival of a CME
associated with C-class X-ray activity early on 12 June is expected
early on 15 June causing unsettled to active conditions with periods
of minor storming possible. Activity is expected to settle down to
quiet to active levels on 16 June.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun

  • Class M 10/10/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 13 Jun 092
  • Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 090/090/085
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 023/035
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 020/030
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/012-015/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/30/25
  • Minor storm 10/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.