Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jun 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jun 13 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. New Region 634 (N12E73)
produced an M1 flare at 13/1156 UTC as well as smaller B and C-class
flares during the past 24 hours. The region is rotating into view as
a small D-type sunspot group. Another new active region is rotating
onto the disk near southeast 08. Sunspots are not yet visible but
GOES SXI has observed B-class flares from this area. Other disk
regions were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Another small M-class flare is possible in Region 634.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active under
the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Jun 095
- Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 100/105/110
- 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 007/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/006
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/25/25
- Minor storm 05/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
