Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1521 (S21W34) has been the most active region,
producing multiple low-level C-class events. Region 1520 (S16W23)
has decayed in area but remains the most magnetically complex region
on the disk, still classified as a beta-gamma-delta. The other four
numbered active sunspot regions have remained quiet and rather
stable. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 13/0224Z. After
analysis, the CME was determined to not be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (14-16 July), as
Regions 1520 and 1521 continue to evolve and rotate toward the west
limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels with a slight chance
for isolated periods at major storm levels on day one (14 July), due
the arrival of the 12 July CME. Unsettled to active levels with a
chance for minor storm periods are expected on day two (15 July), as
effects of the CME continue. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (16 July).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 99/99/50
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 147
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 145/135/125
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 017/034-014/018-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/05
Minor storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 15/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 30/20/10
Major-severe storm 60/20/05