Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today’s activity consisted of
a C2/Sf flare at 13/1051Z from Region 1087 (N21E20). 1087 decreased
in areal coverage and spot number during the past 24 hours and is
currently classified as a Dso with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. A new region, 1088 (S21E12), was numbered today.
1088 is a simple Axx group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
on days one and two (14-15 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected to return on day
three (16 July).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 079
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 06/02/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/30/05
Minor storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01