Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind velocities measured at the ACE Spacecraft ranged from approximately 650 – 700 km/s. This increase is in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on days one and two (14-15 July). The activity is in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (16 July) as the effects of the coronal hole decrease.

• III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Jul 065
• Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 016/021
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 012/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/010-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/05
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/10
• Minor storm 10/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01