Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares occurred during the past 24 hours. New Region 964 (N04W30) is classified as a beta spot group. Region 963 (S06E01) continues to slowly decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 963 or 964.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active periods on 14-15 July due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Jul 078
- Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 006/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 003/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/15/10
- Minor storm 15/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/20/15
- Minor storm 20/10/05
- Major-severe storm 10/01/01