Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jul 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
July 13, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today’s activity consisted of a
few, low-level C-class subflares. Newly assigned Region 409 (N16E66)
rotated more fully into view today and was one of the most active
regions. This group is currently the largest on the disk and was the
source of recent flare activity observed on and near the northeast
limb during the last couple of days. Region 401 (S10W31) showed some
development of new spots in the central part of the group but was
stable and quiet. Two additional regions were assigned today: Region
408 (N13E23), a small newly emerged group, and Region 410 (S13E63),
also a small group that has just rotated into view. A thirteen
degree filament located near N26W08 disappeared between 0100-0900
UTC. Post-eruption arcades were visible in SXI and EIT-195 images.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event over
the next three days, with Regions 409 and 401 the most likely

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours. Solar wind speeds remain somewhat elevated today (around
500-600 km/s), but are lower than yesterday and show an overall
declining trend. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active over the next three days. Some
persistence of today’s activity is expected to linger into tomorrow.
It is possible that transient flow may arrive sometime during the
next three days from the M3 flare of 10 July or from any of the
recent filament eruptions. However, ACE EPAM data do not indicate
the presence of a strong interplanetary shock at this time, making
transient drivers seem less probable than previously. The onset of
effects from another high speed wind stream are expected on day two
or day three as a new coronal hole will be rotating into favorable

III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 13 Jul 127
  • Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 130/130/130
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 025/046
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 015/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 020/020-020/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 20/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 15/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.