Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. A filament channel eruption was observed around 12/2130Z in
the northern hemisphere around Region 1396 (N26E18). In connection
with this event, a CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/2136Z.
This CME appears to be non geoeffective. Two new Regions have been
numbered in the past 24 hours, Region 1397 (S20E28) and Region 1398
(N13W08). Both regions are magnetically classified as beta.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (14 – 16 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. Measurements by the ACE spacecraft indicated the
arrival and continuing presence of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS). During the passage of this CH HSS, solar wind speeds
started out at around 400 km/s, peaked around 550 km/s, and were at
450 km/s, at the time of the report.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(14 – 16 January).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 124
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01