Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
January 14, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1040 (N28W11) has shown growth in areal coverage
(370 Millionths) and is now classified as a Eki-beta group with 33
spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected be at very
low to low levels for the next three days (14-16 January). There is
a chance that Region 1040 will produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (14-16
January).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 091
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 091/090/087
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.