Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 938 (N02E61) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 14 January. On 15 January, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected. On 16 January, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective causing active to minor storm conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Jan 081
• Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-008/010-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/25
• Minor storm 01/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/20/30
• Minor storm 01/10/25
• Major-severe storm 01/01/15