Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2006
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A nine degree disappearing solar filament centered at S05W19 occurred at approximately 12/2340Z as seen from H-alpha and EIT imagery. A Type II radio sweep began at 13/0004Z with an estimated shock speed of approximately 500 km/sec. LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME on the west limb beginning at 13/0054Z which does not appear to be Earth directed. No sunspots are visible on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Jan 077
- Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/004
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/20
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/20/25
- Minor storm 05/10/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/10
