Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 14 0000 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 718 (S07E07) produced
several C-class flares; the largest was a C4.2/Sf flare at 13/1712.
Region 720 (N13E24) has shown significant growth in area and sunspot
number, however, only low level B-class activity has been associated
with the region thus far. This region is now 1080 millionths with a
beta delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events.
Energetic activity is possible from Region 720 due to its rapid
development.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions were
due to the persistence of a high speed stream. The solar wind speed
at ACE has decreased from approximately 720 km/s to 650 km/s during
the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
- Class M 60/60/60
- Class X 15/15/15
- Proton 05/10/10
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Jan 116
- Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 120/120/125
- 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 018/030
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/014
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 008/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
