Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
January 13, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jan 14 0000 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 718 (S07E07) produced
several C-class flares; the largest was a C4.2/Sf flare at 13/1712.
Region 720 (N13E24) has shown significant growth in area and sunspot
number, however, only low level B-class activity has been associated
with the region thus far. This region is now 1080 millionths with a
beta delta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events.
Energetic activity is possible from Region 720 due to its rapid

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions were
due to the persistence of a high speed stream. The solar wind speed
at ACE has decreased from approximately 720 km/s to 650 km/s during
the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

  • Class M 60/60/60
  • Class X 15/15/15
  • Proton 05/10/10
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 13 Jan 116
  • Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 120/120/125
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 018/030
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/014
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 008/015-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.