Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
January 13, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2003

SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity continued at low levels. A C4/Sf flare
and associated CME was observed near the SW limb at 13/1615Z. The
flare began in Region 242 (S07W87) with sympathetic flaring observed
soon after in Region 244 (S22W84). Region 242 is also the confirmed
source of yesterday’s C6 event at 12/1425Z. A prominence erupted off
the east limb near N14 at around 1400Z. No significant changes were
noted in the remaining regions. New Region 257 (N16E23) was numbered

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at higher latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 172

  • Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 165/160/160
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/010-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.