Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
January 13, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Jan 2003
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SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity continued at low levels. A C4/Sf flare
and associated CME was observed near the SW limb at 13/1615Z. The
flare began in Region 242 (S07W87) with sympathetic flaring observed
soon after in Region 244 (S22W84). Region 242 is also the confirmed
source of yesterday’s C6 event at 12/1425Z. A prominence erupted off
the east limb near N14 at around 1400Z. No significant changes were
noted in the remaining regions. New Region 257 (N16E23) was numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at higher latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 172

  • Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 165/160/160
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/010-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.