Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Feb 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1012 (S06E34) produced a B2 event at 13/0535Z. This event had an associated CME which was observed in the STEREO imagery (Ahead and Behind). The region remains a simple alpha sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods for the next three days (14-16 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

• IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
• Observed 13 Feb 070
• Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 001/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/010-015/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10