Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There are no spotted regions on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with a single active period due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed is currently 600 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated periods of minor storming.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Feb 073
• Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/015-006/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 20/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/20/20
• Minor storm 25/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05