Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Feb 076
• Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 075/075/080
• 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 001/002
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01