Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 14, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Feb 13 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 733 (S09E01) generated
the day’s largest event, a C2 x-ray flare at 1040UTC with associated
Type II sweep. At this time there is no indication of a CME. Region 734 (S04E17) had the other C-class flare, a C1/Sf at
1458UTC. Region 733 is the most dynamic of the five regions currently
visible. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet and

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 733 may produce additional C-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at GOES was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 13 Feb 116
  • Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 115/115/115
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/004
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/008-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.