Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Feb 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Feb 13 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 733 (S09E01) generated
the day’s largest event, a C2 x-ray flare at 1040UTC with associated
Type II sweep. At this time there is no indication of a CME. Region 734 (S04E17) had the other C-class flare, a C1/Sf at
1458UTC. Region 733 is the most dynamic of the five regions currently
visible. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet and
unimpressive.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 733 may produce additional C-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at GOES was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Feb 116
• Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 115/115/115
• 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/008-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05