Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 1134 (N19W33) and
1135 (N18E56) were numbered during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (14-16 December). There is a
slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
in response to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to return to mostly quiet conditions for days one and two
(14-15 December). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day
three (16 December) as a recurrent coronal high speed stream rotates
into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 088
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 090/088/088
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01