Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1034 (N19E16)
remains a small Bxo bi-polar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated
C-class event from Region 1034 during the next three days (14 – 16
December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (14 – 16 December).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 076
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01