Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Dec 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 978 (S08W25) produced a C4.5/1f event at 13/1003Z. This region has exhibited growth in white light area coverage and developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 978 remains capable of producing C-class flares with a slight chance for an isolated low level M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for 14-15 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 16 December.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Dec 094
• Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 007/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/20
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01