Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted of several B-class events, mostly from Region 835 (N17E33). Region 835 continues to be the largest group on the disk with about 180 millionths sunspot area, but has been stable and unchanging during the last 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (14-16 December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days (14-16 December).

III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Dec 088
• Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 090/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 007/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 007/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01