Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 13 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A new region was
numbered today as Region 522 (S16W50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. The coronal hole high speed stream continued to keep
solar wind speeds averaging between 700-800 km/s with Bz
fluctuations between +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14-15 Dec. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 Dec.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Dec 088
- Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/100/100
- 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 017/023
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 025/027
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 015/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/15
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/30
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
