Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 13, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 13 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A new region was
numbered today as Region 522 (S16W50).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. The coronal hole high speed stream continued to keep
solar wind speeds averaging between 700-800 km/s with Bz
fluctuations between +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14-15 Dec. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 Dec.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 13 Dec 088
  • Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/100/100
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 017/023
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 025/027
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 015/025-015/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/15
  • Minor storm 10/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.