Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
and the visible disk remained void of spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through most of the
period. ACE solar wind measurements indicated velocities gradually
decreased from 369 to 326 km/sec during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (14 – 16
August).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 067
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01