Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (14-16 August).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (14-16 August).

III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Aug 065
• Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 065/065/065
• 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01