Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next two days (14 – 15 August). Expect quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for active periods, on 16 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Aug 068
- Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 070/070/065
- 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 005/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 002/004
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/30
- Minor storm 01/01/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/35
- Minor storm 05/05/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05