Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next two days (14 – 15 August). Expect quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for active periods, on 16 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Aug 068
• Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 070/070/065
• 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 002/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-005/005-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/30
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/35
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05