Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 13 2225 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and
limbs were quiet during the period. No new regions were numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels today. A solar
sector boundary crossing was indicated by the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 13/0800Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be possible late on 16 August due to the onset of a
recurrent coronal hole stream.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 13 Aug 075
• Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 003/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 006/010-006/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/25
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/35
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10