Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 14, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 13 2225 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and
limbs were quiet during the period. No new regions were numbered

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels today. A solar
sector boundary crossing was indicated by the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 13/0800Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be possible late on 16 August due to the onset of a
recurrent coronal hole stream.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 13 Aug 075
  • Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 003/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 010/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 006/010-006/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/35
  • Minor storm 05/05/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/10

SpaceRef staff editor.