Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 13, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 13 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region
656 (S13W22) produced an X1/1n major flare at 13/1812Z with an
associated 180 sfu Tenflare. Imagery from the LASCO instrument
remains insufficient at the time of this writing for determination
of CME activity. Region 656 also produced an M1/Sf flare that
occurred at 13/0729 and an M1/1f event that occurred at 13/1209Z,
neither of these flares had any significant CME activity observed on
LASCO imagery. Region 656 continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification and did show a very slight growth in sunspot
area during the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains very capable of
producing further isolated major flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 14 August with the
anticipated arrival of a CME from the activity that was observed
late on 10 August. Isolated active periods may be possible on day
two (15 August) at higher latitudes due to lingering effects from
the expected shock. A return to predominantly quiet conditions is
expected for day three in lieu of further imagery from SOHO/LASCO.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

  • Class M 75/75/75
  • Class X 20/20/20
  • Proton 15/15/15
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 13 Aug 149
  • Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 155/155/150
  • 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 006/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 012/015-010/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/20
  • Minor storm 20/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.