Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2003
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S13E17)
produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout the
period. A rapid growth in penumbra has nearly quadrupled areal
coverage in the past 24 hours (currently over 500 millionths). A
delta magnetic structure has also become apparent in the
northwestern portion of spot cluster. Region 424 (S18W80) has begun
to exit the west limb and produced only B-class flare activity
during the period. Region 432 (S05E71) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 431 is rapidly becoming capable of
producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are in response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
are possible during nighttime hours especially at high latitudes on
day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Aug 131
- Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 135/140/140
- 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 017/025
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 015/016
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 012/020-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/35
- Minor storm 10/05/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/25/40
- Minor storm 20/10/20
- Major-severe storm 10/01/10