Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Aug 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
August 13, 2002
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 69
(S07E50) produced an M1/1f flare at 13/1904 UTC associated with
minor discrete radio emission. Region 69 showed a minor increase in
penumbral coverage and remained a large, complex spot group with
multiple magnetic delta configurations. Region 66 (N14E16) showed a
minor increase in spots and area with some polarity mixing evident
within its intermediate spots. Minor growth was also observed in
Region 63 (N18W14) and Region 72 (S18W48). Region 58 (S07W89)
produced a few subflares as it crossed the west limb. Two slow
coronal mass ejections (estimated plane of sky velocity about 205
km/sec) occurred during the period. The source for the CMEs appeared
to be beyond the southeast limb. New Region 77 (S18E48) was
numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 69 is likely to produce isolated
M-class flares during the period. There is also a slight chance for
a major flare from this region.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels until
13/0600 UTC due to coronal hole effects. Field activity decreased to
quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit may reach
high levels during the first half of the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 192
Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 190/190/195
90 Day Mean 13 Aug 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 012/012-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.