Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Apr 2006
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only a few B-class flares occurred. All sunspot regions were relatively small and simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. A small C-class flare is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind observations suggest the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream as the likely cause of the activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated storm conditions as the high-speed stream induced activity continues.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Apr 080 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 020/030-015/040-010/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
