Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 13 Apr 2003
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Today’s only C-class flare was a C2/Sf from Region 330 (N07W57) at
0854 UTC. New Region 335 (S22E57) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for additional isolated C-class
flare events during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
declined steadily during the past 24 hours with day end values
between 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were
at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days, with a
chance for some isolated active periods. A coronal hole will be
rotating to a favorable position sometime between 15 and 17 April
and is expected to produce an increase in geomagnetic activity
levels.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 13 Apr 102
- Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 100/095/090
- 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 010/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 012/012-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 25/25/25
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
